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  16-Dec-2018 05:02 GMT  

A Bunch of Fives

So when all is said and done, we analyse where, when and the quantity of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, or failed to, and somehow deduce why it was destined to be so. That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, who brings us the benefit of his incisive intellect allied to half a century of football scholarship. And not least, his wry sense of humour.您的瀏覽器可能無法支援顯示此圖片。

He leaves the predictions to others, but he’ll provide you with the ammunition to sustain your challenge through your Score Five campaign. He’ll keep you up-to-date with what’s happening in the competition. He’ll lead you along byways exploring weird and wonderful facets of the game past and present, but always in his own inimitable style.

Some comedian once suggested that “98% of all statistics are made up”, but the Prof. cordially invites you all to verify any information he presents – if only because he does most of the calculations in his head. Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.

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Visit the Prof's 2008/09 season archives.

Previous analysis

2011-12 Round 11-16.... 2011-12 Round 8-10.... 2011-12 Round 5-7.... 2011-12 Round 1-4.... 2011-12 Round 1(2).... 2011-12 Round 1

Hello again pals,
And Happy New Year! Here's hoping that 2012 brings you plenty of Perfectos!

After four months during which the form book has prevailed, the Christmas-New Year games proved once again that Anyone Can Beat Anyone. The top three of Dec. 20th (the Manchester pair and Chelsea) managed a combined W5 D3 L4 in Rounds 17-20. In the same time, the relegation favourites (Blackburn/Bolton/Wigan) weren't far behind with W3 D4 L5.

The main beneficiaries of the leaders fragility were Spurs, Arsenal and Liverpool, who all stayed unbeaten in the first three of those rounds, though both reds failed to win easy-looking home games against cellar dwellers before coming unstuck in Round 20. Taking that into account, Spurs fans will feel that their team had more to celebrate. Division-wide, Sunderland were the most successful with 10 points from the possible 12. The O'Neill Revolution is paying rapid dividends on Wearside!

Overall, home teams didn't enjoy the festive fortnight. They won only 10 of the 40 games, with 14 ending as Draws and as 16 Away wins. The H/D/A stats continue to look very strange – see my table below.

Another notable fact is the declining number of goals, with a December average of only 2.57 per game vs 2.95 in the prior months. This is the third successive season where December has coincided with a drop in the goals per game. (I'll update you on the Most Frequent Scores below). We can't even blame skating-rink pitches for this, as England has been unseasonably warm, with barely a frost seen. I did notice Fergie attempt to cover up his team selection errors by blaming a heavy pitch for Blackburn's win at O.T. Face the facts, Alex....you underestimated them.

Not one team went into the New Year's Day games (which contrarily were scheduled between Jan. 2 and 4) with two successive wins. Even finding reliable Bankers proved difficult for the majority of you – the Football Santa delivered his gifts to some unfathomable places and the New Year resolutions of some elite teams didn't last long; great entertainment for us fans, but some grim reading when we survey the ScoreFive tables in the aftermath. It's time to grasp the nettles of Rounds 17-20.

Season Tracker
Here are the details of the last three rounds, and how the averages are progressing. Or regressing. Season highs in any category have a yellow highlight and lows have blue

Round

Basic pts

+ Banker

Results

P5s

Bankers

Goals/games

Comments

1-16 avge

17.01

20.55

49.87%

9.53%

71.40%

2.89 gpg

 

17

18.2

22.19

48.00%

14.20%

79.70%

31 & 10

 

18

13.59

16.12

32.80%

7.20%

50.60%

19 & 10

 

19

14.01

15.22

31.40%

9.20%

24.20%

26 & 10

 

20

12.92

16.01

34.20%

8.10%

68.20%

29 & 10

 

Averages:

16.54

19.91

47.20%

9.56%

68.24%

564 & 199 = 2.83 gpg

Season avge score: 396 pts = global league #245

Round 17
With three away teams (Bolton/Sunderland/West Brom) conspiring to limit your points, it was left to a few outside bets from those games to spice up the round. Siam31 was on target with Sunderland's 2-3 at QPR, JD foresaw West Brom's surprise victory at St. James Park (sorry Mr. Ashley, it's still SJP) and Seebecee bagged a 10-pt Banker with Bolton at Blackburn. Other than these, the only other prediction of note was Baz's Wolves-Norwich Banker.

There were four matches with a high percentage of P5s and most of the high scorers found these, including Kemosabi (Notts. Forest & England) and Jogrew (Fulham & Scotland) who shared top spot with 34 pts with a couple of Man. Utd-supporting ladies, Cool (Italy) and Adrenalin (Romania) just behind.

Round 18
An exceptional run of results that went against highly fancied teams meant that this was the second-lowest scoring round to date. Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool, all with 97% backing, couldn't manage a win between them. Man. City, (94%) Stoke and Swansea (both 64%) failed too.

Those who found 5-pt silver linings amongst all this carnage were Bearweger, Bertie, Maikankan, Umair86, Elaine, Hhempe, Dinney and Nikita. A special mention also for Siam31 and Legend who tipped two of the results, as did Umair86. Among the Bankers, Taffy76 relied on Everton to bag a point at Sunderland, but Kaytee6 and Dreamon1 share Tip of the Round for nailing the Chelsea-Fulham 1-1 and picking up 10 pts in the process.

It's not often that a round's top scorer will locate only four results, but that was the case here, with Mrs. Kaytee6 (Chelsea & Australia) compiling 29 pts (though it did include three P5s) just ahead of BJP (Wolves and Australia) and Clean Sheet Cleaner (Mop & Bucket) on 28.

Round 19
We were assured by all the managers that their players had ignored the party-season temptations and prepared sensibly for these games – even Mario Balotelli, apparently. Despite this, Man. Utd and Chelsea were victims of seismic defeats in front of their own fans. The following day, Man. City followed suit with a stoppage-time loss at Sunderland as they failed to score for the second game in succession. This left a final tally for the round of Top Three 0 pts, Lower Half Strugglers 9 pts.

The number of correct predictions for those games amounted to less than 2% of all players. I salute the inspired lunacy of those who went against the grain. The roll-call is as follows:
Blackburn to win at OT: Stretton Shrew, Siam31
Aston Villa to win at the Bridge: DramaQueen, JD, BrianTang, GraysonsAces, Firruzi
Sunderland to beat MC: Nikita (with a P5!) Simoscy, BrianTang, Col.Utd, Nike, Siam31, Ash2Ash
Two names stand out among these: BrianTang and Siam31 nailed a pair of the trio! Way to go, boys, you're this week's star tippers!

Once the draws at Stoke (credit to Jola2801, Hhempe and Mainaeri for the 2-2) and Swansea were added to the mix, it was clear that the R19 points average was destined to be low. It eventually limboed below the miseries of R18 and just avoided becoming the worst round of the season. Six games didn't have a single correct Banker and 75% of players chose a wrong option. Afia profited by relying on a Norwich-Fulham draw, which finally materialised....in the 6th minute of injury time!

Half the R19 Top 10 was made up of Arsenal fans, including leader Mainaeri (Kenya) on 29 pts, ahead of fellow-Gunner Kubapojawa (Spain) who tied for second spot with Jasper (Man. Utd & England) on 28.

Round 20
This was what I call a 3-1-6. Three results – the wins for Man. City, Spurs and Chelsea – matched the Scorefive consensus. One, Sunderland's win at Wigan, matched your second choice and the other six were all the result
you least expected. Fulham to beat Arsenal? Only 4.23% of you agreed. Bolton at Everton? 2.82%. Awayday duds Swansea at Villa? Even less, 1.97%. In comparison, the 6.2% who backed the Magpies to spoil Man. Utd's start to 2012 equated to a ringing endorsement. No matter, they all happened, along with Norwich's success at QPR (with 11.55% of you backing it) and Stoke (27.32%) at Rovers.

I thought this set of fixtures included several exceptionally hard-to-call games. Added to that, we saw some uncharacteristic performances. Going into Wednesday night's games, Newcastle and Boltom were respectively 18th and 19th in the Form Table based on the last eight results. Both their opponents were odds-on to win. These and the other surprises meant that for the third round in a row, the correct results percentage was in the low thirties. Bankers, at 68% correct, were enough to drag the average score up into the Poor category.

Amidst all this gloom, there were a few rays sunshine from enterprising exceptions to the lemming prediction tendency. AlWildman of the Sungard League was the sole tipper of the Swans 0-2 though LDMcLeay and Colinu did Bank on them. Umairumair86 banked on Sunderland in the wind and rain at the DW Stadium. Studley and WullieW placed their bonuses in the hands (or should it be feet?) of the Potters and they weren't disappointed. Taffy76 did likewise and fingered the 1-2 for 10 priceless points. Seebecee was another with a Banker Perfecto: his came courtesy of Bolton and was even more enjoyable as he's a Bolton fan! Hawkeye was another who profited with Owen Coyle's men.

For truly inexplicable accuracy, no one comes close to a couple of our lady players who foresaw Man. Utd's demolition on Tyneside and weren't afraid to Bank on it. Let's hear it for Hong Kong's DramaQueen and Mrs.Giant in Holland. Shame on all you chaps who are thinking “Had to be a keying error”! They're our first Star Tippers of 2012.

Two players located five of the six away wins and a pair of the homes. Colinu finished with a creditable 25 pts, but Hawkeye (Arsenal and Australia) benefitted from a couple of P5s to post the round's best score of 29. He's the eighth Aussie to win a round this season. In second place on 28 pts was our guitar totin' blogger 664NOTB (Chelsea & Czech Republic). The rapidly-improving Malony (Coventry City & England) shares the third step of the podium with LDMcLeay, another of the Arsenal & Australia persuasion. Well done all!

At the half-way point....
When 19 rounds were completed, (barring one game from Round 1) I surveyed the field of current contenders for our 2011-12 award. Muskir, JoshTz, BadaBing and our 2010-11 runner-up JollyRoger62 have almost been fixtures in the Global League Top 20 since the season kicked off. Lately, BJP, LadyInRed and Babson have moved into serious contention. Old hand JohnW is loitering with intent, as are Maicoolz and Mulugetazeneb.

With positions #6 – #20 covered by a mere seven points, the Top 10 could look radically different after the next round. There are 30 players within 10 pts of the Top 20. Those of you hoping for a New Year surge will be pleased to hear that only seven of the Top 20 at this point last year were still in it when the smoke cleared after Round 38. The season prior saw Lano23 come from outside the Top 20 to take the crown. He's currently at #21. Is that an omen? No, he couldn't, surely....

Here are the category leaders, now updated after Round 20:
Perfectos: #2 Muskir, 32
Results: #34 Adie65 113
Goals: #2 Muskir, 150
Bankers: #57 Adamoc1, 19

The Tipsters challenge
I doubt either of our famous pair are happy. Since topping Round 1, Magic Mike has steadily declined and is now becalmed at #260 on 393 pts, which is three below the average. Lawro had a New Year implosion, and with a puny six (6!) pts from Round 20, he slipped below the Sage Of Bolton and now stands at #285 on 385 pts. I'll let you know if the Supremo is in the market for a couple of new Tipsters.

Predictions help
Last season, there was a clear trend of away teams becoming more adventurous, as exemplified by Blackpool, who finished with the same number of wins on the road as Man. Utd and Chelsea. Overall, home wins shrank, and this season, the pattern has continued – as I write, there are eight teams who have gathered more points on their travels than at home, including the champions and the bottom four.

You can see the evidence here:

 

Home wins

Draws

Away wins

 

Home goals

Away goals

Total g.p.g

2009-10

51.00%

25.00%

24.00%

 

1.70

1.07

2.77

2010-11

47.00%

29.00%

24.00%

 

1.63

1.17

2.80

2011-12*

40.70%

25.10%

34.20%

 

1.53

1.30

2.83

* R1-20

             

The success of away teams is reflected in the current most frequent scores. Last season, there were only two away wins in the Top 10, at positions 7/10. This time around there are three, including the second most frequent score. There hasn't been an away win in the top three places in the last six years at least.

Here's the current Top 10, vs season 2010-11:
 

2011-12

at 5/1/12

 

2010-11

season

1 – 1

12.56%

 

1 – 1

13.68%

1 – 2

10.55%

 

2 – 1

10.53%

3 – 1

8.04%

 

1 – 0

10.53%

2 – 1

7.54%

 

2 – 0

7.89%

0 – 0

7.54%

 

2 – 2

7.11%

1 – 0

7.04%

 

0 – 0

6.58%

0 – 2

6.03%

 

1 – 2

6.32%

0 – 1

5.53%

 

3 – 0

5.27%

2 – 0

5.53%

 

3 – 1

3.68%

3 – 0

5.03%

 

0 – 1

3.68%

Right pals, it's time for me to close up the shop. I'll be back early in February with a summary of Rounds 21-23. In case you're wondering, we aren't able to have an FA Cup competition this season. The good folk who bring ScoreFive to you do have other commitments (particularly earning a living!) and they're a bit busy right now, but I know the Supremo intends to restore it next year.

Until next month, take care,

Prof. Statto


 




 








 




 

 

 

 





 


 

 

 

 












 

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