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  27-Apr-2017 07:12 GMT  

A Bunch of Fives

So when all is said and done, we analyse where, when and the quantity of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, or failed to, and somehow deduce why it was destined to be so. That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, who brings us the benefit of his incisive intellect allied to half a century of football scholarship. And not least, his wry sense of humour.您的瀏覽器可能無法支援顯示此圖片。

He leaves the predictions to others, but he’ll provide you with the ammunition to sustain your challenge through your Score Five campaign. He’ll keep you up-to-date with what’s happening in the competition. He’ll lead you along byways exploring weird and wonderful facets of the game past and present, but always in his own inimitable style.

Some comedian once suggested that “98% of all statistics are made up”, but the Prof. cordially invites you all to verify any information he presents – if only because he does most of the calculations in his head. Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.

======================================

Visit the Prof's 2008/09 season archives.

Previous analysis

2011-12 Round 32-35.... 2011-12 Round 28-31.... 2011-12 Round 25-27.... 2011-12 Round 21-24.... 2011-12 Round 17-20

Hello again, pals!
And for the final time this season, welcome back.

As I was saying when we were last together, it's wonderful for all us neutrals to see there's every chance of the title race going to the final day.

Not only did it go to the final day; the name scheduled to go on the trophy changed as the day progressed, and as we went past the 90-minute mark of the final game, we still weren't certain of the outcome. Just when we thought we knew the winner, it changed again! As Fergie once said “Football, eh? Bloody hell!”

Now here's the really strange thing....more or less the very same sequence of events was unfolding in the ScoreFive title race, with our leading pair neck and neck as the results rolled in! HongkongMui began the day on 830 points, with Peevemeisters on 827. At least when the final whistle blew at the Etihad, everyone knew who was champion. At Scorefive, we didn't.

With five minutes left in all the games, Peeve was on target to pull back two points if his Perfecto from the Norwich-Villa game stayed intact. When Swansea took an 86th minute lead over Liverpool, he pulled level with HKMui. With both players forecasting a 3 for Man. City (and both wrong with their QPR expectations), the Etihad injury-time fireworks didn't change anything in our title race. When the ref called time, our leaders were tied on 858 points. The City hordes knew that goal difference made their team champs. At ScoreFive, we don't have goal difference – we've never needed it! What are the chances of two players finishing equal when over 2000 points are on offer? Slim to none, I'd say.

The ScoreFive Supremo is an intelligent chap. His keen intellect and commercial savvy have made him an international biz-whizz with presidents and potentates at his beck and call. 'If you fail to prepare, you prepare to fail' is his motto. Fortunately for us, he had envisaged this precise scenario when he drafted the competition rules, with the help of a bottle of burgundy, back in the Spring of 2008.

Go to the How To Play page; you'll find a section headed Major competition prize - Season Long Global Champ. Trawl through the waffle and you'll find the nub: in the event that two or more players are tied for the total number of points at the end of that Game competition (the end of Round 38), the player scoring the most bonus points for correctly tipping the correct match results and scores throughout the duration of that Game competition, shall be the winner.

Bonus points? Ah, Perfectos! It makes sense – ScoreFive is the name of the game! Let's see.... HongKongMui, 46. Peevemeisters, 46 Eh? They're still tied! What do we do now? Back to the Supremo: In the event that two or more players still remain tied after this tie breaker test, the winner will be the player of the remaining tied players that has scored the most bonus points in the final Game round.

OK, got it! Peeve had the P5 from Norwich and another at Spurs, HKMui had....one at Spurs. 2-1 to Peeve then, and the 2011-12 title goes to the Carlisle man from the British Isles NZ Branch League!

The collection of wires, relays, processors and circuit boards that make up the ScoreFive mainframe seemed to have trouble accepting this. On Sunday, it was still showing HongKongmui at the top of the rankings. Was this a local bias or had I misunderstood the rules? Time to consult it's shepherd, our top boffin Dr. Richard. I dialled him up in Hong Kong. He confirmed Peevemeisters as the champ. “The leaderboard, unfortunately, doesn't understand the details of the tiebreak rules, and it's not a particularly simple thing to fix that”.

Apart from the excitement at the top, Round 38 was remarkable for other reasons, but we'll get to them in due course.

Season Tracker
Here are the details of the last four rounds, the completed Round 34 update and the final season averages. Season highs in any category have a yellow highlight and lows have blue

Round

Basic pts

+ Banker

Results

P5s

Bankers

Goals/games

Comments

34

15.18

17.72

43.80%

5.50%

50.70%

28 & 10

 

1 – 35

16.59

19.98

46.72%

9.92%

67.81%

973 & 350 avge 2.78

 

36

13.88

17.23

44.70%

11.10%

67.00%

35 & 10

 

37

16.08

18.41

40.80%

11.20%

27.00%

26 & 10

 

38

19.51

24.14

64.10%

6.70%

92.50%

32 & 10

3rd best total pts, 2nd best results %

1 – 38

16.58

19.98

46.97%

9.90%

67.36%

1066 & 380 = 2.81

Season avge score: 759 pts = Global League #189

Round 34 updated
The four games postponed during the FA Cup Semi-Final weekend were completed in the first week of May. Of the 10 games, four had no P5s, four had single-figures and only the Stoke-Everton draw delivered a worthwhile number, hence the second lowest Perfecto count of the season. That, plus home defeats for two heavyweights scuppered any possibility of a decent average points total. Celebrating with the Fulham fans after their win at Liverpool was Umairumair86, with the only P5 from that game. It was just sharp enough to beat AlWildman and Jogrew's 3-0 at Swansea for Tip Of The Week. 

The 50% of players who decided to go the Manchester route for their Banker were wise. The other eight games provided a mere six correct, and none at all from four games. Spurs winning at Bolton was to be expected; Fulham at Liverpool wasn't, so well done to the sole success, Jack Bauer. Papiss Cissé's double for the Toon at Chelsea was daringly tipped by our resident FK Teplice fan, 664NOTB in the Czech Republic. There aren't many players who Bank on draws successfully, but Maikankan pulled off the trick with Stoke-Everton.

Three players tied for the lead with 29 pts. A quick Perfecto check relegated the Supremo (Southampton and England) to third place, while Nobbie (Gillingham & England) celebrated his second ScoreFive anniversary by taking top spot ahead of AndyInHolland (Wolves & England) by virtue of an earlier Prediction time.

Round 36
Tons of goals – hurray! Which always limits Perfect 5s – boo! What's more, the nets were bulging in the unlikeliest places. Despite their recent stellar performances, only 12% of you backed Wigan to beat Newcastle, and mostly by one goal. No one expected Wigan to score four, never mind win by four. Everton were another goal-shy team who scored a month's ration in one day. “There is something particularly stirring about a comeback against all expectations,” I said here last month, but I never expected it would also refer to Wolves, and their three-goal burst late on at Swansea. There wasn't a single Perfecto from any of those games, or Chelsea's 6-1 dismantling of QPR, though Tubby went close with his 5-1 forecast.

As usual, we had a few enterprising Bankers to liven things up. Pooh6 and Ken backed Man. Utd to lose, which hasn't happened often this season. Seebecee and Taffy76 relied, not for the first time, on Bolton to take a point from Wearside, and PhotoArtCreations decided that the Brum derby would also end all square. When that's our best Tip Of The Week, you know it's been a poor week.

It's the sign of a true competitor that they always bounce back after a disappointment. Following his second place two weeks ago, John_Makris (Liverpool & Australia) went one better in winning the round with 29 pts. Thizah (Arsenal & S. Africa) was the runner-up with 27 pts, just ahead of four players on 26. 

Round 37
For the fourth round in succession, the average score failed to reach 20 pts, the longest such run this season. It was also the fifth successive week that correct Bankers failed to reach 70%. Noteworthy tips? Hardly a one. The closest thing we had to an inspired prediction was Titian and Igban nailing the Wolves-Everton 0-0. 

Almost 90% of Bankers were placed on Arsenal and Man. Utd at home, despite the Gunners having failed to win either of their previous two home matches. Oops, they did it again, adding to the five other matches that couldn't muster a Perfecto between them. Needing something to applaud, we'll have to settle for Bangkok Blues and Bertie for their choice of Fulham as Banker, and Rudy for his of QPR.

What interest there was came from the leaderboard. With 32 pts, Mainaeri (Arsenal & Kenya) created ScoreFive history, becoming the first player to win three rounds in the same season! Providing heavyweight competition were our 2010-11 champ Filiposworku (Arsenal & Netherlands) and Top 20 regular Mulugetazeneb (Chelsea & Ethiopia), who shared second place on 30 pts.

Round 38
This was more like it! Our old pal the Law Of Averages came to the rescue allowing most players to finish the season with a bumper week. The seven results that were backed by over 50% of you all came to fruition. Six of them had 70%+ support. Correct results at 64.1% were the second highest of the season while Bankers at 92.5% were the season's best. Average points, at 24.14, was only exceeded by round 6 (24.48) and Round 12 (24.79). 

The picture wouldn't have been so bright without those late, late goals by the new champions. They added an extra 4.5 pts per player, with almost half of you Banking on them. If there's ever been a previous occasion when more of you (2) Banked on Wigan than Liverpool (1) I don't remember it. OK, they were only playing doomed Wolves, but five points is five points! The late converts to the Martinez Method? Nigel Ball and Jeet.weet.

With so much uniformity in your bids, there wasn't much opportunity for diamonds among the coal, but 664NOTB and Muskir were on target with their 3-1s at Everton, just as Andrew Watson and Nobby Style fingered the Wigan 3-2.

It's been more than six months since we've seen any new members admitted to the elite Tenners Club – for players who correctly forecast all 10 results – but the final day of competition saw three! Please raise a toast to Andyson4real (Arsenal & Nigeria) Umbie08 (Man. Utd & USA), and the Round 38 winner Wendy1974 (Millwall & England), who clocked up 35 pts. In second place, like his team, was Ian Blakeley (Man. Utd & England) on 34 pts ahead of a quartet on 33.

I almost forgot to mention... There was one particular forecast that deserves to be remembered. I'll try to help that process by making it my Tip Of The week. Studley said Man. City 3-2 QPR!

Global League highlights
Here are our Category Leaders:
Results points: 420. #13 Owensic
Perfectos: 53 #20 Guobe
Bankers: 33 #3 Trevorsio, #29 JohnW, #33 Johan1305, #113 Ra1anne

Nation with the most weekly winners: Australia, 11
Club supported by the most weekly winners: Arsenal, 9.
Top Tip Of The Season: Leigh05, Round 29. Wolves 0-5 Man. Utd (10 pt Banker)

The table below shows the leading players of our four seasons. Note also the details of the two players who have never finished outside the Top 20 – Lano 23 and Trevorsio!

Season

Champion

Second

Third

Others

2008-09

Gilberto's Goldmine

761*

Lano23

760*

Nick1

734*

4th Trevorsio

2009-10

Lano23

924

Go Behind Seagulls

918

Trevorsio

918

 

2010-11

Filiposworku

827

JollyRoger62

823

LynchM

823

      7th Lano23  

    =18th Trevorsio

2011-12

Peevemeisters

858

HongKongMui

858

Nitin_04

848

4th Trevorsio   

9th Lano23

* pre-Bankers

       

The Battle of the Tipsters
The totals suggest a clear win for Mike, but a closer inspection prompted me to do some checking. Basically, Bankers are the difference between the totals. In fact, without them, Lawro is ahead. Why is his score so poor? Because he doesn't choose a Banker. I've discovered that he has has been arbitrarily allocated the first game on the Predictions page for every round. Whatever his prediction for that game, it has been made his Banker. It doesn't matter whether he says Home/Away/Draw, that's the one he gets. I just checked Rounds 1-6 and the home teams included Blackburn (twice) Sunderland and Aston Villa....not what I'd call Banker material. 

This puts the BBC man at a disadvantage. It seems fairer to me to choose the game with the biggest margin he forecasts, i.e. if he has Man. Utd at to win 3-0 at home, it's a more logical choice than Aston Villa 1-1 Everton. In the circumstances, I think Mike would at least give him an honourable draw. 

Pos.  

Results

Goals

P5s

Bankers

Total

  #16

1

Magic Mike

354

242

37

140

773

#22

3

Lawro

358

240

41

95

734

Goals per game
This season has seen the highest ever number of goals scored since the Prem changed to 20 teams / 38 games. It's a small increase only, but that's fine with me. Here are the six seasons from the nadir of 2006/07 to the present day. 

Season

Total

Per game

2006/07

931

2.45

2007/08

1002

2.64

2008/09

942

2.48

2009/10

1053

2.77

2010/11

1063

2.8

2011/12

1066

2.81

The exception to the rule.
You've seen the situation: fourth official holds up the substitution board, the player doesn't want to come off. He eventually drags himself back to the dug-out/stomps off down the tunnel, either ignoring the manager or giving him looks that could kill. There are even a few who clap sarcastically – Fiorentina's Adam Ljajic is one of them. Managers usually ignore such mockery and stare stony-faced at whatever isn't happening on the pitch. Delio Rossi (now ex-Fiorentina) isn't one of them.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53RhYdH3bBY 

This happened while Fiorentina (the Italian equivalent of, say, Aston Villa) were 0-2 down against Novara last week. Perhaps it was the thought of what the manager's mood might be when they returned to the dressing-room that inspired the Fiorentina players to a 2-2 comeback, ensuring safety from relegation after a season of unfulfilled expectations. 

The morning after, the manager got il licenziato, as they say in Italy – the boot. The chairman decided that a manager attacking a player wasn't acceptable. Conversely, those of you who keep an eye on the British tabloids will know that attacking people, usually in or around nightclubs, is a popular pastime for Premier Leaguers, but unless they get jailed, they don't get sacked. 

It's not the first time a manager has waded into a player, but those who have previously dispensed physical retribution – the name Souness comes to mind – usually had the wit to wait until the dressing room door had closed. I suspect there are chairmen at clubs with unruly squads currently looking up Signor Rossi's number.

It's time I signed off. I hope you've enjoyed the season as much as I have, pals. I'll hope to see you back here in August. In the meantime, enjoy the European Championships.

Prof. Statto


















 

 


 

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